The brutality of Myanmar junta rulers once again made international news and horrified the world. Despite the heavy condemnation and pressure from international community, the junta military government's claims to be negotiating with the opposition, but the reports of the junta military rulers continue taken a drastic night time action by bursting into monasteries, smashed the sleepy monks’ heads against the walls, spattering them with blood, assault UN employee and her family, and arrested hundreds of pro-democracy activists for interrogation, torture, or even execution still ongoing.
The continuation of the regime to arrest, detain civilians and dissidents who had central or marginal roles in the street peaceful protests that reached a peak on Sep. 25, 2007 before a bloody crackdown. Pro-democracy groups estimate that more than 2,000 people have been detained, including Buddhist monks, and the junta military and the riot police have killed some 200 people.
As the detentions fly in the face of promises made by the Myanmar to cooperate with the United Nations., so in their ongoing crackdown on all flickers of dissent, the only action can be taken by the United Nations special envoy for Myanmar Ibrahim Gambari is nothing more than demanding Myanmar's ruling junta immediately stop arresting pro-democracy activists, and issuing the statement saying “the latest detentions were "extremely disturbing" and run counter to the spirit of mutual engagement between the UN and Myanmar,” besides further setting to visit Myanmar's neighboring countries - Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, India, and China - for tougher sanctions against the regime.
Expressing their support to Gambari's mission, the foreign ministers are expected to ban lucrative imports of jade and rubies, teak and metals from Myanmar and banning the Myanmar junta generals from traveling to the EU and a freeze on assets.
Ironically, China is not going to take any action on Myanmar. China gets precious natural gas and potential access to the sea. Annual bilateral trade estimated about $1.1 billion, amounted total Myanmar's GDP of $9.6 billion benefited both sides. It also becomes the economic lifeline for the Myanmar military ruler. China is also Myanmar's largest military supplier as well as the $2 billion oil pipeline connect to southern coast of China's Yunnan province. When completed, it will allow China to get Middle East oil to its southern provinces easily and securely, overcoming the threat of the foreign military pressure should the international conflict happen. Myanmar’s railheads at Myitkuina and Lashio in northeast and Irrawaddy River is the potential for the export of Chinese products. Under the policy of non-interference and internal affairs, China moves to block the UN Security Council from condemning the Myanmar regime's assault on the Buddhist monks and pro-democracy protesters last week.
The main reason for India’s reluctant to alienate Myanmar is India desperately needs the vast and largely unexploited energy reserves for the economic boom. India has invested $150 million in a gas exploration off the Arakan coast of Myanmar State owned Oil.and Natural Gas Corporation and Gas Authority of India Ltd, have 30 % share in two offshore gas fields as a direct competition to Petro China, besides closely using the common border by military to counter rebels in India's north-east. India also benefited by providing tanks and training to junta’s military as well as the north-eastern border trade of consumer goods and raw materials. India was forced to ask for the freedom of Myanmar democratic opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi when under the US’s threatening to link America's nuclear deal with India.
In 2002, Myanmar had purchased eight MiG-29B-12 air-superiority combat aircraft and two dual-seat MiG-29UB trainers at a cost of about $130 million from Russia as well as negotiating to purchase Russian air-defense systems. In May 2007, Russia had signed a deal to build a 10-megawatt nuclear-research reactor in Myanmar. Like China and India, Russia also very interested in energy cooperation with Myanmar. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising Russian President Vladimir Putin says on September 28, 2007 that although he was sorry about civilian deaths in Rangoon but it was still premature to speak about the sanctions.
Although US is one of the countries strongly condemn and pressure Myanmar, but America's Chevron and France's Total, two of the world's oil giant, still continue doing business in Myanmar besides trump rhetoric democracy and human rights that serve their strategic economic and energy security interests.
In view of ASEAN will not interfere in the internal affair of a fellow member, the regional grouping which includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam can only issued a statement during the week of the crackdown that, ‘’They were appalled to receive reports of automatic weapons being used and demanded that the Myanmar government immediately desist from the use of violence against demonstrators.’’ ASEAN also urged the junta ‘’to exercise utmost restraint and seek a political solution.’’
Furthermore, the value of bilateral trade between Myanmar and Singapore in 2006 was one billion dollars. Apart from arms deliveries in 1988 and later, Singapore has trained Myanmar intelligence officers in cyber warfare as well as renders assistance to establish a cyberwarfare center in Rangoon, which monitors the activities of dissidents in the country and in exile.
Undeniably, Singapore is the banking center for Myanmar’s generals and their business cronies. One of the junta leader Than’s business cronies is the 43-year-old tycoon Tay Za who own Htoo Trading Company. The company becomes one of two main contractors that built Burma’s new administrative capital, Naypyidaw.
The other is the Asia World Group, headed by Steven Law or Tun Myint Naing, son of Lo Hsing-han. In the 1970s, US authorities branded Steven Law as the King of Opium in Golden Triangle. Both Tay and Steven Law visits Singapore frequently, and Than himself for medical treatment.
According to available reports, the two-way trade between Myanmar and Thailand was 3.7 billion dollars and Thailand is getting the supply of fuel and gas cheaply.
Japan in its first act of protest against the junta's bloody crackdown on demonstrations in which a Japanese journalist was shot dead, canceling aid of up to 552 million yen (4.7 million dollars), equivalent to around 18 percent of the total grants and technical assistance Tokyo gave Myanmar last year, as a strong symbolic message on October 16, 2007. The canceled grants had been intended to finance the construction of a human resources centre in Myanmar. It was the only concrete grant aid project for which Japan was exchanging notes with the Myanmar government.
Japan, once Myanmar's largest aid donor, cut the funding in response to international outrage over the crackdown to pressure the regime to change course and move towards democracy. In 2003, Japan had suspended low-interest loans for major infrastructure projects to protest the detention of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.
However, Japan stopped saying it would end all assistance to Myanmar, keeping its odds position with Western allies who have demanded international action to isolate the brutal regime. As Japan and China have increasingly jostled for influence overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia, so fearing that the punishment would push the junta further into the arms of China, which has close economic and political ties with the military regime.
Myanmar's generals know that the action taken by UN such as sanction is not affecting their existing power. It is reflected by the action on Friday in which negatively reacted on the criticism by the United Nations Security Council, saying it will go on with its own plan restoring democracy in the country. The Myanmar junta rulers, who have held power since 1962, have rarely been known to cave in to international pressure and shows once again that their military government’s dreadful reputation for bestiality is mostly positive.
The political scenario clearly shows that the successful anti-junta protest movement will put Myanmar's generals in imprisonment, exile, and possible death, even with the intervention of UN. The consequences leave them with virtually no choice but to hold on to power by all means and at all costs.
Ironically, Myanmar's generals strongly believed that so long as China, Russia, India and Japan still seeking status quo stability by providing political, financial and military support, pressing for democratization is not going to materialize. The theory being proven by China's decision to block the UN Security Council from condemning the Myanmar regime's assault on the Buddhist monks and other peaceful protesters as well as the silence of Russia, India, and Japan.
UN is committed to do everything it can to promote a peaceful resolution of the crisis. It has spearheaded an international effort to push Myanmar's military, to halt its crackdown and enter negotiations with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, but it seems that it is not biting.
On the other hand, the United States and Europe have issued strong statements condemning the crackdown and calling upon Myanmar's neighbors, especially India and China, to exert their influence on the regime but not responded positively. By isolating Myanmar from the world, or through negotiations and dialogue to end the crisis, is neither the effective solution. In the end, the generals still can get away with their crimes because of their economic and strategic importance to neighbors and other allies.
The scenario clearly indicated that UN is merely a “paper tiger” in which UN seems as threatening as a tiger, but is really harmless. Myanmar junta rulers seem to be believed that United Nations is nothing but a paper tiger. In appearance UN looks very powerful but in reality it is nothing to be afraid of; it is a paper tiger. Outwardly a tiger, it is made of paper, unable to withstand the wind and the rain.
From the past experience, it seems that the most effective way to end the crisis is by far the military action against Myanmar like the action taken by US against Iraq. The question remains:is the UN Security Council will block it and who should plan to engage in a large-scale military operation against Myanmar to overthrow the regime of junta. In the international community, however, who should undertake to overcome the serious questions regarding its legality, its justification, its political implications, the costs of the war itself. Otherwise, Myanmar's junta still survives under the hypocrisy of the democracies.
Burma exploit the situation that it is the internal affair of the country, no one should interfere even UN.
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