Every five years, the general election will be held and the coming 13th the
general election must be held by 27 June 2013 at the very latest.
The
general election speculation may not be practical, but it’s fun and made life
more lively. More often than not, it needs to thin where it matters.
As noted, BN have dominated Malaysian electoral politics since
independence but the development of the 12th general election political
scenario much has changed beyond
our understanding.
It creates an
inherent momentum behind
positive and negative domino effects and the momentum appeared to continue with the political
development especially the BERSIH 3.0 rally and the
demands of Dong Zong Chinese-language educationists.
Traditionally,
the UMNO outspokenly hawkish called on the government to take radical action especially
towards the merit
based
in economic allocation, university admittance and Chinese-language education. It leads to dramatic
changes in social–political–economic scenarios.
The new Malaysia social and
economic
systems notoriously change the political scenario in
Peninsular Malaysia which reflected in the 12th general election.
Ironically, the
fruits of political economic
development
are not shared
justly to all Malaysians especially the people in east Malaysia. It posts a big
challenge to a veritable collapse of
its "impregnable fortress" of
the time deposit states of Sabah and Sarawak.
Undeterred
by political skepticism about the 13th general election speculation, some
political analysts crunch some numbers and take a crack that Pakatan Rakyat would
have to win 93 seats more than BN’s 72 seats and capture another 24 seats from
East Malaysia, then Pakatan Rakyat is home.
The brewing variables
to the current political situation are, DAP would have to win 33 seats,
along with PKR 32 and PAS 28 seats, that can be as electable
alternatives to the Barisan Nasional.
Behind the political analysts, there
are
other media fabrications that PKR would be more likely to get 23 seats, 6 seats
back
from its politician
defected to Barisan Nasional during the 12th general election additional to 3 new seats created. Pas could have captured
5 additional seats in Johor due to its vice
president Salahuddin Ayub to contest a
state seat in Johor in
the coming polls.
The
UMNO political internal crisis in Negeri Sembilan, Johor, and Sabah beside MCA president
Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek just get one-third
of its members support
in
Johor seems to be the collapse of BN’s
impregnable fortress.
The
dissatisfaction of Chinese voters towards the Batu Pahat UMNO outspokenly
hawkish, deputy Education Minister seems could be the political catalysis for
the loosing of a great numbers of Barisan Nasional seats at the
next election.
Pakatan Rakyat would
have capture 24 seats from East Malaysia that take a crack to the time deposit
states of Sabah and Sarawak.
The claimed September
16th as a Black Day for Sabah and Sarawak due to
unfulfilled the promises, assurances and
undertakings by the senior partner to the Federation under Malaysia Agreement,
1963 in terms of security, economic
prosperity and development were cast aside and ignored could be a few key factors that affect
the voting pattern in Sabah and Sarawak.
The negative political
impact, however might be overcome or neutralize by the numbers
of illegal
immigrants
who were granted citizenship
in Sabah, according to political analysis.
Many voters feel that they have been pushed away by politicians to cause the
brewing of the political storms or rather should there a hung parliament.
Politics is frustrating; it’s
a zero sum games. The Pakatan parties are always there to exploiting issues, hoping to gain some
political advantage from disgruntled voters, they are there to beat the
ruling BN.
On the other hand, BN has an outstanding
track record for success and upward mobility since independence, what needed
now is to influence the voter to make a decision.
It seems that BN is waiting
for the final emotional moment that will convince the voters that the right
choice is the BN which can deliver as well as perceived to be a better choice and less chaotic than
Pakatan.
The question remains: Politics
is the art of possible, so what is the art of the politicians to win the
coming 13th general election?
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