Is the Two-party system the double-edged sword for BN or PH?

The coming 14th general election foresee the existence of two-party system in which BN and PH are contesting the 222 parliamentary seats and 587 state seats. PAS is being seen as a mere minnow.

The 93-year-old former Prime Minister Mahathir, who led the opposition PH component parties, is going to put up a battle to oust Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is the incumbent ruling coalition BN leader beside PAS to fight their own battles.

When we speak of political system, a two-party system is a system where two major political parties dominate the government. Either one of the two parties holds a majority seats in the legislature or governing party while the other is the minority opposition party, it’s a result of winner takes all election rules. 

Political experts said, Malaysians awoke during the March 2008 general election which vastly altered political landscape. Unexpectedly, they expressed their dissatisfaction and questioned the long existing political status quo. They decided it should be the time for a change which made the Malaysian political scene richly volatile. 

Although the incumbent coalition BN securing a simple majority of 133 seats to win the victory and back to power, however, losing the popular vote with 47.4%. The opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) has posed itself as a formidable foe to BN and becoming a viable alternative.

The dramatic result raises question about the future politics of Malaysia’s two-party system policy. 

Unexpectedly, in an unprecedented political U-turn, rather in what is perhaps his biggest U-turn ever, Mahathir recognize and grab the chance political opportunity presented to became the leader of the alliance of opposition parties of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM), PKR, DAP and Amanah, bidding to oust the incumbent Najib, who is claimed to be engulfed in a massive financial scandal. 

With the transformed new political landscape, the political scenario became complicated, fast-paced and confusing especially the shaping up of coming battles featuring EX-UMNO politicians versus current UMNO politicians, according to the political observer. 

The Mahathir-led opposition, however, achieve cooperation and understanding to make the two-party system become a reality.

Unexpectedly, the PH chairman Mahathir announced that all 4 parties in the opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan i.e. PKR, DAP PPBM and Amanah  parties will be contesting the coming 14^th General Election under the PKR logo. The opposition pact made the decision as they could not contest using PH logo since PH has not received approval from ROS to register as a formal party, as well as PPBM has been order to deregister.

Pakatan Harapan allocated 52 seats to Pribumi, followed by PKR 51 seats, DAP 35 seats and Amanah 27 seats in the coming 14^th General Election.

Some political analysists said, the decision to use one logo is impossible to achieve in the past especially DAP has used the Rocket symbol for not less than 60 years and other component parties are also partial to their party symbols respectively. 

However, the disbandment notice issued by the Registrar of Societies (RoS) to Pribumi serve as a catalyst in the using a common symbol to context beside it’s the best way of winning the coming 14^th General Election.

Some political analysists found out that it’s unwise for the ROS to block the PPBM from using their symbol to contest, thus provide the opportunity for the opposition alliance to use the common symbol PKR in contesting the seats. It may make it easier to persuade potential supporters to support them to achieve a good performance.

Moreover, with all the achievements in the past, Mahathir has an impressive record of administering the country besides the success stories of opposition rule in Selangor and Penang. Even the Auditor-General’s office also confirms that opposition coalition has brought tremendous changes to both Selangor and Penang.

Some political observers say, the ruling UMNO has used all the resources and energy to mount an all-out attack PH by accusing the DAP of controlling the alliance. The mass “strategic lies” about DAP created is being used as a weapon by the BN-UMNO owned or controlled mainstream mass media and the social media against its political enemy the PH. 

Aggressively, Najib and his allies have also increased their attacks on the opposition parties with which Mahathir has since aligned himself. They asserted that the alliance is dominated by the largely Chinese DAP, whom they present as hostile to and even anti Islam. Some opposition leaders denounced the aggressive attack as inflammatory and unsubstantiated allegations.

On the other hand, some political experts said the issues used by opposition to attack UMNO no other than the 1MDB, the spiraling cost of living, GST, the weak ringgit, cut in subsidies, poor management of Felda and Tabung Haji, less allocation for scholarships, suppression of human rights, Malaysian land and energy assets being sold to foreigners, as well as China's investments in Malaysia. The opposition would use any issues to turn the people against the government.

Among the general public, 1MDB is seen as the ultimate case of the abuse of entrusted power for private gain and corruption at the highest level. However, the opposition's main focus was not 1MDB but merely using it as the excuse to attack the UNMO politicians.

Undeniably, social media had become a political platform for both the BN and opposition cyber troopers to create fake news and negative perceptions that went against each other.

Some political observers believed that although recently Umno’s “popularity” is at an all-time low, but the opposition is not that strong either, as the non-Malay support for the opposition seem to be stagnated or softened.

  

On the contrary, in what is seen as a "teacher vs student showdown", some political observers predict that Mahathir stands to become the world's oldest leader if the opposition wins. 

However, according to some political analysts, the Mahathir-led opposition looks unlikely to unseat the Najib-led BN. Without enough resources and fighting on two fronts, PAS was “digging its own grave” and unable to put up any fight outside the safe seats.

 

Some of the more vocal political analysts pointed out that the redelineation of electoral boundaries for peninsular states was drawn to the advantage of the ruling party. It has failed to ensure the number of voters in constituencies is “approximately equal” as it has amplified the ratio between the smallest and largest parliamentary constituencies.

Moreover, as ethnicity was one of the criteria considered during redelineation, thus it resulted fifteen parliamentary constituencies, which were previously mixed constituencies, have transformed into eight Malay-dominant and seven Chinese-dominant constituencies.

The 14^th general election will be one of the most important political events for the Malaysian which attracts a great deal of international attention. However, what matters is, can Najib keep the BN dreams on track or the BN boat is turning over in the ditch?

Never the less, the utmost important question remains: could Mahathir pull something out of the hat and become a game-changer?