No mercy for UN envoy in Burma

November 7, 2007 - Burma's ruling junta has rejected UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari's bid for three-way talks with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi during his visit, official media says.

Information Minister Kyaw Hsan told Gambari such a meeting was premature and he warned tougher international sanctions on Burma would only make matters worse.

Burma will not bow to outside pressure. It will never allow any outside interference to infringe on the sovereignty of the state," state-run MRTV quoted Kyaw Hsan as saying during talks with Gambari in the new capital Naypyidaw.

The UN said Gambari "had very frank and extensive exchanges" with senior junta officials on the fourth day of a mission aimed at securing talks between Suu Kyi and the generals who crushed pro-democracy protests in late September.

He urged that dialogue "start without delay as an indispensable part of any process of national reconciliation and the lifting of restrictions on Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and all political detainees as the necessary steps to that end", the UN office in Rangoon said in a statement.

The statement made no mention of Gambari's request for three-way talks involving himself, Suu Kyi and General Aung Kyi, who met the Nobel laureate for 75 minutes last month after he was appointed the junta's liaison minister.

Kyaw Hsan said Suu Kyi had not responded to the conditions set for direct talks with junta chief Senior General Than Shwe, which included ending "confrontation" and her support for sanctions and "utter devastation" - a term not defined.

"He asked Gambari to urge Aung San Suu Kyi to respond to it," MRTV said.

Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party, which won a massive election victory in 1990 only to be denied power by the army, has said any negotiations should have no prior strings attached.

Gambari was due to meet other top junta members and brief the diplomatic corps in Naypyidaw on Thursday, but there was no word on an audience with Than Shwe.

Gambari expected to see Suu Kyi in Rangoon, where she met him twice during his last visit after soldiers crushed pro-democracy protests in September, triggering international outrage. He also met Than Shwe on that trip.

Rumours that Suu Kyi had fallen ill swirled around Rangoon, but NLD spokesman Nyan Win said the 62-year-old was "okay".

A source at Rangoon's Asia Tawwin Hospital said Suu Kyi, who has spent 12 of the last 18 years in detention, had a minor operation to remove an ingrown finger nail and was returned to her lakeside home, where she is under house arrest.

The UN has said Gambari will stay in Burma as long as necessary to accomplish his mission, but his work has been complicated by the generals' move to kick out the UN's top resident diplomat for highlighting the country's economic crisis.

However, the regime agreed to a visit by UN human rights envoy Sergio Paulo Pinheiro from November 11 to 15, the UN said in a statement, the first time he has received a visa in four years.

Knickers to the Burma Junta General

Activists seeking to pressure the Burmese regime are targeting the superstitions of its senior generals by asking for people around the world to send women's underwear to the junta.

In what may be a first, campaigners based in Thailand have called for supporters to "post, deliver or fling" the underwear to their nearest Burmese embassy. They believe the senior members of the junta – some known to be deeply superstitious – could be made to believe they will lose their authority should they come into contact with the lingerie.

"The Burma military regime is not only brutal but very superstitious. They believe that contact with a woman's panties or sarong can rob them of their power," says the website of the Lanna Action for Burma group, based in Chiang Mai, in northern Thailand.

The group says that Burmese embassies have already received underwear from people in Thailand, Australia, Singapore and the UK.

One of the group's activists, Tomoko, said: "We want to raise awareness first, and we want to target officials, letting them know we are against them abusing their power. We are sending the generals panties as a symbol of putting their power down."

What result the underwear campaign will have is unclear. Burma's senior general, Than Shwe, is known to be very superstitious. When the regime decided to move its capital from Rangoon to a new location deep in the jungle at Naypidaw, the general sought the advice of a numerologist who told him that the most auspicious time for the move would be 6.37 in the morning.

As a result, the first convoy of government trucks left Rangoon at precisely that time.

News of the latest effort by activists to pressure the regime came as hundreds of Burmese riot police returned to the streets of Rangoon yesterday. The Buddhist Lent season was ending, allowing monks to move about again, and authorities feared they might spark off protests. – The Independent

ASEAN urged:Stop passing the buck on Burma

October 25, 2007 - ASEAN-based activists have urged ASEAN to stop "passing the buck" on to China for the Burmese regime's failure to reform.

Dismissing ASEAN's claims that it lacks leverage to influence the Burmese junta members as a lie, the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma (Altsean-Burma) claims that ASEAN countries have enough collective power to paralyze the SPDC Army within days.

"Burma relies on ASEAN countries - Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore - as its main sources of much-needed foreign exchange, fuel and financial services.

"If ASEAN were to exercise its considerable leverage to insist that the Burmese junta delivers genuine economic and political reforms, allies like China, India, and Russia will have to fall in line with their lead," insisted Altsean-Burma Coordinator Debbie Stothard. Ms Stothard was speaking in Manila, at the ASEAN People's Assembly.

"The regime is also afraid of the UN Security Council's power. Indonesia which will chair the Security Council next month should use all opportunities at its disposal to ensure that a genuine breakthrough happens in Burma," she said.

In a briefer released by Altsean-Burma today, the regional human rights group asserts that ASEAN countries must exercise their substantial influence on Burma military leaders to secure the delivery of genuine political and economic reforms, instead of using China as an excuse for inaction. The briefer reveals that:

* Burma relies on petrol and diesel supplies from Malaysia and Singapore to keep business running and military vehicles on the road. The military is the biggest consumer of fuel.

* Burma relies on trade with ASEAN for 51.3% of foreign exchange revenue, with gas sales to Thailand alone accounting for 48.4% in 2005/06.

* Burma relies on Thailand and Singapore as their biggest sources of new Foreign Direct Investment, constituting a total of 98.61% of FDI in the past 2 years.

* Burma relies on Singapore financial services to store and move the wealth that they drain away from Burma.

The briefer, available at www.altsean.org, recommends an ASEAN freeze or even a slowdown on economic, material, and diplomatic support in order to shepherd the regime to political dialogue and the achievement of genuine reforms. Action should include a temporary freeze on large Burmese-held bank accounts and other financial assets in Singapore as part of a money-laundering review.

Ms Stothard urged ASEAN leaders to use its considerable economic leverage to pressure the regime to cease its witch hunt against monks, pro-democracy activists and ethnic communities and to commence genuine political dialogue. "Developments in the past few days prove that pressure works.

The regime is vulnerable. It faces financial shortages due to its own mismanagement and irresponsible spending in anticipation of future oil and gas revenue. The Army, which has been suffering from increasing desertions has been further demoralized by orders to kill monks during the recent crackdown.

"If ASEAN does not use pressure now, at this critical time, the Burmese junta will do its usual 'one step forward two steps back' dance at the ASEAN Summit in Singapore next month," concluded Ms Stothard.

UN is “paper tiger” in resolving Myanmar‘s Crisis!

The brutality of Myanmar junta rulers once again made international news and horrified the world. Despite the heavy condemnation and pressure from international community, the junta military government's claims to be negotiating with the opposition, but the reports of the junta military rulers continue taken a drastic night time action by bursting into monasteries, smashed the sleepy monks’ heads against the walls, spattering them with blood, assault UN employee and her family, and arrested hundreds of pro-democracy activists for interrogation, torture, or even execution still ongoing.

The continuation of the regime to arrest, detain civilians and dissidents who had central or marginal roles in the street peaceful protests that reached a peak on Sep. 25, 2007 before a bloody crackdown. Pro-democracy groups estimate that more than 2,000 people have been detained, including Buddhist monks, and the junta military and the riot police have killed some 200 people.

As the detentions fly in the face of promises made by the Myanmar to cooperate with the United Nations., so in their ongoing crackdown on all flickers of dissent, the only action can be taken by the United Nations special envoy for Myanmar Ibrahim Gambari is nothing more than demanding Myanmar's ruling junta immediately stop arresting pro-democracy activists, and issuing the statement saying “the latest detentions were "extremely disturbing" and run counter to the spirit of mutual engagement between the UN and Myanmar,” besides further setting to visit Myanmar's neighboring countries - Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, India, and China - for tougher sanctions against the regime.

Expressing their support to Gambari's mission, the foreign ministers are expected to ban lucrative imports of jade and rubies, teak and metals from Myanmar and banning the Myanmar junta generals from traveling to the EU and a freeze on assets.

Ironically, China is not going to take any action on Myanmar. China gets precious natural gas and potential access to the sea. Annual bilateral trade estimated about $1.1 billion, amounted total Myanmar's GDP of $9.6 billion benefited both sides. It also becomes the economic lifeline for the Myanmar military ruler. China is also Myanmar's largest military supplier as well as the $2 billion oil pipeline connect to southern coast of China's Yunnan province. When completed, it will allow China to get Middle East oil to its southern provinces easily and securely, overcoming the threat of the foreign military pressure should the international conflict happen. Myanmar’s railheads at Myitkuina and Lashio in northeast and Irrawaddy River is the potential for the export of Chinese products. Under the policy of non-interference and internal affairs, China moves to block the UN Security Council from condemning the Myanmar regime's assault on the Buddhist monks and pro-democracy protesters last week.

The main reason for India’s reluctant to alienate Myanmar is India desperately needs the vast and largely unexploited energy reserves for the economic boom. India has invested $150 million in a gas exploration off the Arakan coast of Myanmar State owned Oil.and Natural Gas Corporation and Gas Authority of India Ltd, have 30 % share in two offshore gas fields as a direct competition to Petro China, besides closely using the common border by military to counter rebels in India's north-east. India also benefited by providing tanks and training to junta’s military as well as the north-eastern border trade of consumer goods and raw materials. India was forced to ask for the freedom of Myanmar democratic opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi when under the US’s threatening to link America's nuclear deal with India.

In 2002, Myanmar had purchased eight MiG-29B-12 air-superiority combat aircraft and two dual-seat MiG-29UB trainers at a cost of about $130 million from Russia as well as negotiating to purchase Russian air-defense systems. In May 2007, Russia had signed a deal to build a 10-megawatt nuclear-research reactor in Myanmar. Like China and India, Russia also very interested in energy cooperation with Myanmar. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising Russian President Vladimir Putin says on September 28, 2007 that although he was sorry about civilian deaths in Rangoon but it was still premature to speak about the sanctions.

Although US is one of the countries strongly condemn and pressure Myanmar, but America's Chevron and France's Total, two of the world's oil giant, still continue doing business in Myanmar besides trump rhetoric democracy and human rights that serve their strategic economic and energy security interests.

In view of ASEAN will not interfere in the internal affair of a fellow member, the regional grouping which includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam can only issued a statement during the week of the crackdown that, ‘’They were appalled to receive reports of automatic weapons being used and demanded that the Myanmar government immediately desist from the use of violence against demonstrators.’’ ASEAN also urged the junta ‘’to exercise utmost restraint and seek a political solution.’’

Furthermore, the value of bilateral trade between Myanmar and Singapore in 2006 was one billion dollars. Apart from arms deliveries in 1988 and later, Singapore has trained Myanmar intelligence officers in cyber warfare as well as renders assistance to establish a cyberwarfare center in Rangoon, which monitors the activities of dissidents in the country and in exile.

Undeniably, Singapore is the banking center for Myanmar’s generals and their business cronies. One of the junta leader Than’s business cronies is the 43-year-old tycoon Tay Za who own Htoo Trading Company. The company becomes one of two main contractors that built Burma’s new administrative capital, Naypyidaw.

The other is the Asia World Group, headed by Steven Law or Tun Myint Naing, son of Lo Hsing-han. In the 1970s, US authorities branded Steven Law as the King of Opium in Golden Triangle. Both Tay and Steven Law visits Singapore frequently, and Than himself for medical treatment.

According to available reports, the two-way trade between Myanmar and Thailand was 3.7 billion dollars and Thailand is getting the supply of fuel and gas cheaply.

Bilateral trade volume between Myanmar and Malaysia rose 16.4 percent to 256.2 million US dollars in 2004 compared with 2003. During the year, Malaysia’s exports to Myanmar amounted to 149. 3 million dollars, while its imports from Myanmar were valued at 106.9 million, which was a 34 percent increase over the previous year, Meanwhile, Malaysia has injected a total of 660.7 million dollars into Myanmar as of 2004 since 1988, mostly in the sector of oil and gas, hotel and engineering services.

Japan in its first act of protest against the junta's bloody crackdown on demonstrations in which a Japanese journalist was shot dead, canceling aid of up to 552 million yen (4.7 million dollars), equivalent to around 18 percent of the total grants and technical assistance Tokyo gave Myanmar last year, as a strong symbolic message on October 16, 2007. The canceled grants had been intended to finance the construction of a human resources centre in Myanmar. It was the only concrete grant aid project for which Japan was exchanging notes with the Myanmar government.

Japan, once Myanmar's largest aid donor, cut the funding in response to international outrage over the crackdown to pressure the regime to change course and move towards democracy. In 2003, Japan had suspended low-interest loans for major infrastructure projects to protest the detention of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.

However, Japan stopped saying it would end all assistance to Myanmar, keeping its odds position with Western allies who have demanded international action to isolate the brutal regime. As Japan and China have increasingly jostled for influence overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia, so fearing that the punishment would push the junta further into the arms of China, which has close economic and political ties with the military regime.

Myanmar's generals know that the action taken by UN such as sanction is not affecting their existing power. It is reflected by the action on Friday in which negatively reacted on the criticism by the United Nations Security Council, saying it will go on with its own plan restoring democracy in the country. The Myanmar junta rulers, who have held power since 1962, have rarely been known to cave in to international pressure and shows once again that their military government’s dreadful reputation for bestiality is mostly positive.

The political scenario clearly shows that the successful anti-junta protest movement will put Myanmar's generals in imprisonment, exile, and possible death, even with the intervention of UN. The consequences leave them with virtually no choice but to hold on to power by all means and at all costs.

Ironically, Myanmar's generals strongly believed that so long as China, Russia, India and Japan still seeking status quo stability by providing political, financial and military support, pressing for democratization is not going to materialize. The theory being proven by China's decision to block the UN Security Council from condemning the Myanmar regime's assault on the Buddhist monks and other peaceful protesters as well as the silence of Russia, India, and Japan.

UN is committed to do everything it can to promote a peaceful resolution of the crisis. It has spearheaded an international effort to push Myanmar's military, to halt its crackdown and enter negotiations with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, but it seems that it is not biting.

On the other hand, the United States and Europe have issued strong statements condemning the crackdown and calling upon Myanmar's neighbors, especially India and China, to exert their influence on the regime but not responded positively. By isolating Myanmar from the world, or through negotiations and dialogue to end the crisis, is neither the effective solution. In the end, the generals still can get away with their crimes because of their economic and strategic importance to neighbors and other allies.

The scenario clearly indicated that UN is merely a “paper tiger” in which UN seems as threatening as a tiger, but is really harmless. Myanmar junta rulers seem to be believed that United Nations is nothing but a paper tiger. In appearance UN looks very powerful but in reality it is nothing to be afraid of; it is a paper tiger. Outwardly a tiger, it is made of paper, unable to withstand the wind and the rain.

From the past experience, it seems that the most effective way to end the crisis is by far the military action against Myanmar like the action taken by US against Iraq. The question remains:is the UN Security Council will block it and who should plan to engage in a large-scale military operation against Myanmar to overthrow the regime of junta. In the international community, however, who should undertake to overcome the serious questions regarding its legality, its justification, its political implications, the costs of the war itself. Otherwise, Myanmar's junta still survives under the hypocrisy of the democracies.

The road to Myanmar

Three hard facts set the boundaries for the talks between Myanmar's ruling generals and the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi are; military rule will maintain unless there are obvious splits among the military rulers, no choice but to hold on to power at all costs and until China decides not to support. Read this interesting story by JAMIE F. METZL.

The road to Myanmar passes through Beijing

NEW YORK — Three hard facts set the boundaries for the talks that United Nations negotiator Ibrahim Gambari is undertaking as he shuttles between Myanmar's ruling generals and the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
First, despite the heroic leadership of the Buddhist clergy and the prodemocracy community, almost 50 years of military misrule and terror tactics have worn down Myanmar's people, who will likely find it hard to maintain their defiance unless there are obvious splits among the ruling generals or widespread desertions among ordinary soldiers.
Second, Myanmar's generals know that they face a stark choice: Either maintain power or risk imprisonment, exile, and possible death. In their eyes, this leaves them with virtually no choice but to hold on to power at all costs.
Finally, as long as China provides political, financial and military support for Myanmar's rulers, it will be all but impossible for any meaningful change to occur. Until China decides that it has more to gain from a more legitimate government in Myanmar than it does from the current incompetent military regime, little can happen.
China's decision to block the U.N. Security Council from condemning the Myanmar regime's assault on the Buddhist monks and other peaceful protesters last week underscores its long-standing political support for the junta.
Last January, China, alongside Russia, vetoed a Security Council resolution that condemned Myanmar's human rights record and called on the government to stop attacks on ethnic minorities, release political prisoners and begin a transition toward national reconciliation and democracy. For years, China has also blocked meaningful sanctions against Myanmar.
China's economic ties to Myanmar's rulers are strategically important for both sides. Annual bilateral trade, estimated at $1.1 billion — a huge figure, given Myanmar's total GDP of $9.6 billion — provides an economic lifeline for the Myanmar government. China is also Myanmar's largest military supplier.
At the same time, the $2 billion oil pipeline that China is seeking to build from Myanmar's southern coast to China's Yunnan province will allow China to get Middle East oil to its southern provinces more easily and securely. When completed, the pipeline will make China much less susceptible to foreign military pressure in the event of international conflict.
So the stakes in Myanmar are high for China, as are Chinese fears of how any future "national reconciliation" government might react to China's record of complicity with corrupt military rulers.
It should be remembered that America and its allies, faced with strategic fears of a similar type during the Cold War, also supported repugnant and oppressive regimes in places like Zaire, Chile and Indonesia. But America and the West did, at key turning points, realize that times had changed so much that these dictators had outlived their usefulness. Thus, despots like Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines and Chun Doo Hwan in South Korea were jettisoned, because the price of supporting their despicable regimes became greater than the benefits.
In today's Internet age, the costs of China's support for Myanmar's generals are rising fast. Just as in Darfur, where China's perceived support for the Sudanese government translated into harsh criticism and threats to brand the 2008 Olympics the "Genocide Games," China's backing of the Myanmar generals, particularly if the death toll rises, could cause similar problems.
Indeed, an Olympic boycott will become more likely if scenes of murdered or brutalized Buddhist monks are flashed around the world. Moreover, Myanmar's public health woes and drug and human trafficking are increasingly being exported to southern China.
Although China has expressed some vague concerns over the crisis to the Myanmar government, it has not taken any action that could meaningfully affect the regime's calculations, despite its singularly unique leverage.
To encourage China to take the lead in fostering national reconciliation in Myanmar, the international community must convince China that pushing for reform and change can be a win-win proposition. The international community must make clear that China's interests would be protected during a transition to a more open society in Myanmar, and that some version of the oil pipeline project will be supported by any new regime.
Because China has been competing with India for access to Myanmar's natural resources, India also needs to be actively included in efforts to pressure the Myanmar regime, a process that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) might effectively coordinate.
In a statement issued Sept. 27, ASEAN foreign ministers expressed a surprising degree of condemnation of the crackdown in Myanmar. They could play an essential, leading role in a process that includes the Myanmar parties, China, India, the European Union, Russia and the United States and that devises a road map for change in Myanmar.
Such an international process simply cannot happen without China. The road to change in Myanmar runs through Beijing.
Jamie F. Metzl, who served on President Bill Clinton's National Security Council, is executive vice president of the Asia Society.

Six billion people Boycott Chinese Olympics 2008?

Oct 8, 2007 - Democratic Voice of Burma reported - The People’s Movement Leader Committee has threatened to call for a boycott of the 2008 Olympics if China uses its veto in the United Nations Security Council again to block action on Burma.

The group issued a statement which said that China’s protection of the Burmese military government has enabled the junta to continue its suppression of demonstrations.

"If China continues acting in this way, we would like to warn them we will campaign to get all six billion people of the world to boycott the upcoming Beijing Olympics…and also all Chinese products," the statement said.

"[China] doesn't care if it sees millions of Burmese people sinking into poverty - in fact they are only interested in making profits for themselves by dealing with the Burmese government. We will do what we can to the best of our abilities. The Burmese people would not tolerate it this time if China uses its veto again," the statement continued.

Some political and human rights groups have already called for a boycott of the 2008 games in response to China’s refusal to condemn the actions of the Burmese government in suppressing recent demonstrations. Reporting by Aye Nai

Malaysia urged Burmese drop preconditions talks with pro-democracy

October 8,2007-The state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper reported the latest arrests are nearly 1,000 people and holding in detention centers. According to the junta, a total of 135 Buddhist monks remain in custody.

But dissident groups and foreign governments say more than 6,000 people have been locked up after last month’s protests, the biggest in nearly two decades against 45 years of brutal military rule. Soldiers opened fire on demonstrators, who were led by monks, on Sept. 26 and 27, bringing to an abrupt end all resistance.

Accordingly, a relentless crackdown in Myanmar on pro-democracy activists showed no sign of easing with the junta announcing on Sunday that 78 more people have been detained in spite of global outrage and new sanctions.

It is reported by New Light of Myanmar today Lieutenant General Myint Swe of the defense ministry yesterday distributed about $US8000 ($8877) in cash and huge amounts of rice, cooking oil, toothpaste and medicine to 50 monasteries and a nunnery in northern Rangoon. The donations were made on behalf of military members and their families, and were accepted by the monks.

In Buddhism, refusing to take alms is regarded as a snub akin to effective excommunication, and acceptance of the gifts would indicate the soldiers have been brought back into the faith. Buddhist monks last month declared a boycott on donations from soldiers and their families as they spearheaded protests which brought as many as 100,000 people onto the streets of the nation's main city.

The military government's violent crackdown on the pro-democracy protests sparked international condemnation. But the international community remains divided on how to deal with the junta.

Malaysia is the latest country to urge the Burmese military to drop his preconditions for talks with pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar said, the move was necessary if Burma was to avoid stronger international pressure, on October 7, 2007.

It is reported that hundreds of people have attended the funeral of a Japanese journalist killed during protests in Burma. Kenji Nagai, 50, who was shot as he filmed demonstrations in Rangoon on 27 September, was buried in Tokyo today, October 8, 2007.

Myanmar Crackdown

Myanmar is a country very rich in energy, teak, minerals and gems, consists of 19 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and billions of barrels of crude oil reserves, and has been under military rule since 1962. The current junta came to power after snuffing out a 1988 pro-democracy movement against the previous military dictatorship, killing at least 3,000 people in process. Myanmar is the name invented to change Burma, 18 years ago by the benighted junta, known as SLORC back then and the State Peace and Development Council now, when it seized power through force.

The generals called elections in 1990 but refused to give up power when Aung San Suu Kyi’s party won. The opposition leader has spent nearly 12 of the last 18 years under house arrest.

The basic reason for the crackdown triggered the uprising anti-government protests led by Buddhist monks is misgovernance. Two years ago fuel prices shot up nine fold, with current 15 doubling of diesel prices and fivefold increase in the cost of compressed natural gas, a hike passed on to passengers using public transport. The transfer in November 2005 of government offices to the new administrative capital of remote Naypyidaw, in a jungle wasteland 300 kilometers from Rangoon, apparently to boost government secrecy, is unjustified and believed to have cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Then, to help compel disgruntled civil servants to go along with the move, the government raised their pay 500%. Myanmar’s 375,000 men Army, key to the junta’s survival, got a tenfold pay raise. Then there's the construction of another huge project “the Yadanabon Silicon Valley cyber-city,” which serves to pull the plug on the Internet in a bid to prevent images of its repression from reaching the outside world.

When the army began attacking Buddhist monks and their supporters in the streets, they discovered that the world had changed, people are watching. But critics from the international community and foreign media International pressure on Myanmar are not biting.

On the other hand, Myanmar’s military rulers accused foreign governments of trying to destroy the country, while soldiers carried out more overnight raids to arrest people suspected of joining a pro-democracy uprising.

The strongest condemnation came from the United States and Britain. US President George W. Bush announced new sanctions, including a ban on visas and a freeze of the assets of 14 Burmese officials. But the United States realizes it has a weak leverage to influence the junta, and this is the reason Bush called on “all nations that have influence with the regime to join us in supporting the aspirations of the Burmese people and to tell the Burmese junta to cease using force on its own people.” These include China, India and Japan, all of which have substantial investments in Burma in exchange for access to its vast oil and off-shore gas resources.

The United States, very quick to announce new sanctions, seems to have reached an impasse in its foreign policy, where reflexive invocation of punitive measures, together with Washington's exhausting preoccupation with conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, may have resulted in diminishing returns.

George W. Bush said China was the only country with a hope of convincing Myanmar’s rulers to speed up moves towards political reform. The Chinese may not want to be seen as protecting another dictatorial and brutal regime. Although they are unlikely to exert public pressure on Myanmar, Western nations are hoping they will take up the cause behind the scenes.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said, “I want to see all the pressures of the world put on this regime now-sanctions, the pressure of the UN, pressure from China and all the countries in the region, India, pressure from the whole world.”

Russia said it viewed developments as Myanmar’s internal affair, while India, one of Myanmar’s biggest trading partners, limited itself to an expression of concern and said it was closely monitoring the situation.

Democratic India would like to vie with China for influence in Myanmar and has so far taken an ostrich-like approach to the crisis, as if believing that looking the other way will make it cease to exist. The world, meanwhile, waits for a more democratic ethos to manifest itself in India's foreign policy.

By getting China and Russia to even agree to a press statement from the council will be an uphill struggle because both countries contend that the situation in Myanmar is an internal affair and doesn't threaten international peace and security - as required for Security Council action.

In January 2007, China and Russia cast a rare double veto on a US-sponsored resolution calling on Myanmar's military government to release all political prisoners, speed up progress toward democracy, and stop attacks against ethnic minorities.

China, which needs Myanmar’s fuel resources for its rapidly developing economy and energy-hungry industries, managed a weak protest by saying it “hopes that all parties in Myanmar will exercise restraint and properly handle the current issue.”

Is it really as simple as China flipping a switch and Myanmar will be democratic overnight? In reality, China is not the only country the Burmese crisis puts on the spot. France has tremendous oil interests in Myanmar, and how its influence will be used and what kinds of sacrifices a Paris under new leadership is willing to make in the name of principles like human rights remains an open question.

China has interests and involvements in Myanmar, but faced limited leverage too. Myanmar is not some kind of client state of China. It is a xenophobic, divided, tribalized country with a nationalistic government by its own; it bears more resemblance to one of the less coherent sub-Saharan African states than to most other East Asian countries. It’s not an easy place to influence, through most of the 1980s there was a Burmese Communist Party, which consisted primarily of the ‘Wa tribe’ plus Chinese leadership. When the Wa decided to turn anti-communist in the late 1980s and chased the Chinese leadership, China’s influence in the country was drastically reduced but there was little China could do without military intervention. Beijing basically sat by passively when it happened.

Still, for China the Burmese crisis conjures especially difficult questions, all the more because, unlike its Western counterparts, the country is fashioning a new identity for itself on the world stage, not merely managing one.

China has economic involvements in this neighboring country and sells weapons to doesn't mean anything more when big U.S. companies are involved in some third world country and the U.S. government also sells weapons to it. Those things imply neither political commitment to a certain regime nor any ability to change the regime. The Chinese have been pressing Rangoon diplomatically for some time to liberalize the political system. Going beyond that to some kind of active Chinese attempt to impose a new kind of politics would be like the U.S. invading Mexico to clean up Mexican politics, but much messier because Burmese nationalism and tribalism make Mexico's nationalism and Iraq's tribalism seem modest by comparison.

The regime change in Iraq by U.S. would not temper somewhat the occasional neocon fantasy that China could simply install a new regime in North Korea or the apparent new fantasy of some liberals that China could just install a different kind of government in Burma.

Whether next year's Olympic Games factor into China's calculus on Myanmar, as many news outlets are suggesting that China's motives in relations with Myanmar have nothing to do with the Olympics. It is doubtful that even the idea of some connection has ever crossed the minds of Chinese leaders.

Myanmar is one of the world's most serious human rights problems. The world doesn't like what’s happening there, but isn't willing or able to do much about it. It has become the Great Game in the scramble among Asian powers for access to its resources. The junta is playing this card to the hilt to keep power and to suppress the democracy movement in Myanmar.

The world including China is pushing Myanmar in the same general direction but with little success. Hopefully the monks, the UN special envoy, Ibrahim Gambari arrived in Rangoon from Singapore last weekend, with an urgent mission from the Security Council and the position of Asean, of which Myanmar is a member, are going to change the structure of the game.