The
coming 14th general election foresee the existence of two-party system in which
BN and PH are contesting the 222 parliamentary seats and 587 state seats. PAS is being seen as a mere minnow.
The
93-year-old former Prime Minister Mahathir, who led the opposition PH component
parties, is going to put up a battle to oust Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is
the incumbent ruling coalition BN leader beside PAS to
fight their own battles.
When we speak of political system, a two-party system is a system where two major
political parties dominate the government. Either one of the two parties holds
a majority seats in the legislature or governing party while the other is the
minority opposition party, it’s a result of winner takes all election rules.
Political
experts said, Malaysians awoke during the March 2008 general election which vastly
altered political landscape. Unexpectedly, they expressed their dissatisfaction
and questioned the long existing political status quo. They decided it should
be the time for a change which made the Malaysian political scene richly
volatile.
Although
the incumbent coalition BN securing a simple majority of 133 seats to win the
victory and back to power, however, losing the popular vote with 47.4%. The opposition
Pakatan Rakyat (PR) has posed itself as a formidable foe to BN and becoming a
viable alternative.
The
dramatic result raises question about the future politics of Malaysia’s
two-party system policy.
Unexpectedly,
in an unprecedented political U-turn, rather in what is perhaps his biggest
U-turn ever, Mahathir recognize and grab the chance political opportunity
presented to became the leader of the alliance of opposition parties of Parti
Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM), PKR, DAP and Amanah, bidding to oust the
incumbent Najib, who is claimed to be engulfed in a massive financial scandal.
With
the transformed new political landscape, the political scenario became
complicated, fast-paced and confusing especially the shaping up of coming
battles featuring EX-UMNO politicians versus current UMNO politicians,
according to the political observer.
The
Mahathir-led opposition, however, achieve cooperation and understanding to make
the two-party system become a reality.
Unexpectedly,
the PH chairman Mahathir announced that all 4 parties in the opposition coalition
Pakatan Harapan i.e. PKR, DAP PPBM and Amanah
parties will be contesting the coming 14th General Election
under the PKR logo. The opposition pact made the decision as they could not
contest using PH logo since PH has not received approval from ROS to register
as a formal party, as well as PPBM has been order to deregister.
Pakatan
Harapan allocated 52 seats to Pribumi, followed by PKR 51 seats, DAP 35 seats
and Amanah 27 seats in the coming 14th General Election.
Some political
analysists said, the decision to use one logo is impossible to achieve in the past
especially DAP has used the Rocket symbol for not less than 60 years and other
component parties are also partial to their party symbols respectively.
However, the disbandment notice issued by the
Registrar of Societies (RoS) to Pribumi serve as a catalyst
in the using a common symbol to context beside it’s the best way of winning the coming 14th General Election.
Some
political analysists found out that it’s unwise for the
ROS to block the PPBM from using their symbol to contest, thus provide the
opportunity for the opposition alliance to use the common symbol PKR in contesting
the seats. It may make it easier to persuade
potential supporters to support them to achieve a good performance.
Aggressively, Najib
and his allies have also increased their attacks on the opposition
parties with
which Mahathir has since aligned himself. They asserted that the alliance is
dominated by the largely Chinese DAP, whom they present as hostile to and even
anti Islam. Some opposition leaders denounced the aggressive attack as inflammatory and
unsubstantiated allegations.
On the other hand, some political experts said the issues used by opposition to attack UMNO no other
than the 1MDB, the spiraling cost of living, GST, the weak ringgit, cut in
subsidies, poor management of Felda and Tabung Haji, less allocation for scholarships, suppression
of human rights, Malaysian land and energy assets being sold to
foreigners, as well as China's
investments in Malaysia. The opposition
would use any issues to
turn the people against the
government.
Undeniably, social media had become
a political platform for both the BN and opposition cyber troopers to create
fake news and negative perceptions that went against each other.
Some political observers believed that although recently Umno’s “popularity”
is at an all-time low, but the opposition is not that strong either, as the
non-Malay support for the opposition seem to be stagnated or softened.
On the contrary, in what is
seen as a "teacher vs student
showdown", some
political observers predict that Mahathir stands to become the world's oldest leader if the opposition wins.
However, according to some political analysts, the Mahathir-led opposition looks
unlikely to unseat the Najib-led BN. Without enough resources and fighting on two fronts, PAS was “digging its own
grave” and unable to put up any fight outside the safe seats.
Some
of the more vocal political analysts pointed out that
the redelineation
of electoral boundaries for peninsular states was drawn to the advantage of the
ruling party. It has failed to ensure the number of voters in constituencies is
“approximately equal” as it has amplified
the ratio between the smallest and largest parliamentary constituencies.
Moreover, as ethnicity was
one of the criteria considered during redelineation, thus it resulted fifteen
parliamentary constituencies, which were previously mixed constituencies, have
transformed into eight Malay-dominant and seven Chinese-dominant
constituencies.
