The sleeping Lion has woken up to shake the world

White House slapped US$60 billion worth of Chinese products seem to be deliberately provoking trade war as U.S had accused China not fulfilling promises to further open financial services and agricultural markets. It is also said that it was purposely designed to counter the threat of china emerging as a major technology competitor. Strategically, the action is aggressive and delicately provoking trade war which would have been unwise as it’s like adding fuel to the fire.

Just hours after Donald Trump’s announcement, China struck back to impose levy 15 per cent tariffs on 120 types of products including fruit, wine and steel pipes, worth US$977 million, 25 per cent tariffs on another 8 categories of products worth US$2 billion including pork and recycled aluminum. It’s allegedly, moreover, that China is ready to respond further in case the U.S measures were really implemented.

The American dared to take such drastic action against China because of their track record of winning. China, as usual will lose and fulfill the demand to make demanded concessions and give priority to the U.S’s interest.

History does, in fact, repeat itself. Look at all those horrible battles that took place in China, especially the Eight-Nation Alliance invaded China. The eight nations were the United State, Japan, Russia, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Austria-Hungary.  When the international legations in Beijing were besieged by Boxer rebels supported by the Qing government, the coalition dispatched their armed forces, in the name of humanitarian intervention to defend their citizens in China, and a number of Chinese Christians who had taken shelter in the legations.

The war ended with a coalition victory, followed by the signing of the Boxer Protocol on September 7, 1901, undertaking to execute 10 officials said to be linked to the outbreak. The compensation has to compensate war reparations for a total of 450 million Chinese ounces of silver to the eight countries. The said amount is to be paid in 39 years besides seizure of valuable things.

Over the years, the U.S and China had had 3 major trade confrontations over textile in the 1980s, intellectual property in the 1990s and exchange rates in 2005. It was a height that we had never even dared to think about before, almost every time China was at inferior position and forced to make a lot of compromises compare to U.S which just made a token compromise.

Some economy analysist say, currently the actions taken by China is a temporary measure in the form of protest but it’s totally restricted. End of the day, China has to surrender and once again make concessions such as reforming the state owned enterprises at least contributed to the current imbalances.

However, some pro U.S observers even said, China would be cautious as the trade between U.S and China is much more important to the Chinese economy rather than for the U.S. On the other hand, varies studies suggested that it is the other way around due to the America’s economic might is fading.

According to Investopedia, U.S has been at the top list of the national economies globally since 1871. However, as the Chinese economy experienced astonishing growth in the past decades and began an unprecedented economic catch-up in 1978, surpasses Japan as world’s second largest economy since 2010. Nevertheless, it’s said that China is gaining on the U.S and catapulted to become the world’s second biggest economy. Surprisingly but not unexpected, some economists even claimed that China has already overtaken the U.S to become the world’s largest economy.

Historically, industrial revolution increased the efficiency and reduced the cost of production which caused Britain, the U.S and other European nations to produce goods far more than their populations. Moreover, the continuing industrial innovations in manufacturing, technological breakthrough and financial efficiency not only helped the U.S achieved high production but chart a course for U.S to become the world’s largest economy in 1900 and continuing to maintain U.S economy, political and then military dominance in the strategic economy environment that never stops evolving.

Although innovation never stops in the U.S and the Great Britain, never the less they are going through a process of de-industrialization. On the other hand, China not only industrialized on a spectacular scale but never stop innovating. The successful innovation and new technology is no longer progressing, instead its pace is accelerating faster than ever before. Under the circumstances, it brings China “huge soft power” and the ability to influence world economy.

                                                                               

With the equal access to advance industrial technologies, in addition to a much larger population, it had resulted China the dominant economic power, so as the political and military dominance in the world for the 21^st century.

IMF has asserted that China had produced 17% of the world gross domestic product in 2014 exceeding U.S’s GDP of world’s 16%. As reported by the source, it predicts that China will account for 25% of the world’s economy by 2030. The impressive prediction will continuing to attract the best brains fled to China in the hope of better lives.

According to reports, currently the trade between two countries actually supports not less than 2.6 million jobs in the U.S across a large wide range of industries, including the jobs that created by the Chinese company in the U.S. As time goes on, the Chinese middle-class consumers will exceed the entire population of the U.S by 2026. The U.S companies can exploit the significant opportunities to tap into the new and lucrative customer base that can further boost the employment and economic growth. Even economic data show that nations have trading closely with China outperform other nations with less integrated trade ties.

In 2015 alone, China had purchased $165 billion in term of goods and services from the U.S, representing 7.3 % of U.S exports and about 1 % of total U.S economic output. 

Although some U.S manufacturing jobs have been lost due to trade deficit, but U.S firms manage to sell high-value products to China, including semiconductors, cars, trucks, construction equipment which support a very large number of jobs. In addition, U.S firms also export business and financial services, totaling $6.7 billion in 2014 and $7.1 billion in 2015. By 2030 the exports to China is estimated to reach more than $520 billion.

As China has become an integral part of the global manufacturing supply chain, its exports are comprised of imported components for final assembly. If the value of the imported components subtracted from China’s export, so much so the U.S trade deficit with China is reduced by half to about 1% of GDP, which is about the same amount as the U.S trade deficit with the European Union.

China has grown to become the 3^rd largest destination for U.S goods and services in 2000. U.S exports to China directly and indirectly supported 1.8 million new jobs and $165 billion in GDP in 2015. The total economic benefits generated from investment by both countries respectably amounted to 2.6 million U.S jobs and about $216 billion of GDP.

Goods manufacturing by China also lower the prices in the U.S markets, dampening inflation and putting more money in American wallets. U.S consumer prices are 1% to 1.5% lower due to cheaper Chinese imports. The typical household earned about $56,500 in 2015; goods imported from China therefore saved the families up to $850 that year. Besides, if China stops buying Boeing, 180,000 American jobs could be lost.

Ironically, the U.S has enjoyed a dominance role in the global economy especially trading with China for such a long time, but the scenario might begin to change with the rise of emerging China.

                                                                                               

Some political analysts said, White House slapped US$60 billion worth of Chinese products is a “Thucydides trap” and is a catastrophic strategy to keep China down.

More than two centuries ago, Napoleon Bonaparte said: “China is a sleeping lion. Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will shake the world.”

On the other hand, China’s President Xi Jinping say, today, the lion has woken up. But it is peaceful, pleasant and civilized.

A central question that some political analysts ask is: Have you ever seen a peaceful, civilized and not aggressive lion?

In the art of War, Sun Tzu say, if you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat and puff oneself up one’s own cost.

The question remains: Does keeping China down is the answer to the fading American Dream?

Is Mahathir on track to win the 14th General Election?

Politically, incumbents may normally win; this has been true for a long time, however, the on-coming Malaysia 14^th general election might shatter the myth as the opposition leader, 93 years old Mahathir is a lot more popular than any other incumbent. 

There is now the more than theoretical possibility that Mahathir will return to lead the country should the opposition win the election. Impossible, though unlikely, but the chances of happening are not exactly slim. We can’t denied the possibility of happening as politics is an art of impossible.

The assumption could not be accepted and rejected sharp by pro-ruling coalition parties and BN as the underlying assumption is identical and false, but why the pro-opposition and most of the grass root voters strongly accept uncritically? 

Although the electoral system makes ruling party defeat impossible, Mahathir former UMNO president and prime minister 22 years in power, now leader of the alliance opposition parties is nonetheless, bidding to oust the incumbent. It is said that he is denounce political correctness.

Ironically, under current political system, it’s believed that the electoral system makes ruling BN defeat impossible although quite a number of the Malaysians are angry with Najib and his administration. Undeniably, BN has control an incredibly strong political machine, with 1.6 million civil servants or about 11 percent of the labor force across the country. 

The Malaysia’s bureaucracy is one of the biggest in the world. The ratio is the highest of civil service to population in the world with 1 civil servant to 19.37 citizens, while Singapore is 1: 71.4 people and Indonesia is 1:110. 

Crucially, it's understandable that the policy of the BN government has always been focused on patronage politics of racial derived from a centralized political system which dispensing largesse from UMNO. In addition, UMNO was also accused to capitalize the distribution of state money through affirmative action schemes to mostly rural Malay base with a significant lump sum siphoned off.

Undeniably, the lack of solution to the long-term negative consequences of UMNO Malay-centrism on Malaysian nation building that led to the poor management of public resources and failure in policy implementation cause the dissatisfaction in the first place.

Despite their unchallenged status, the economic burdens on the middle and lower classes are increasing while the nation is experiencing high economic growth. It make the rich richer and the poor poorer.

According to UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Malaysia is one of the top 10 countries with the highest student mobility in the world with more than 56,000 students studying abroad. 

Among the students, the government is funding around 7,736 students abroad. The top destinations for Malaysia students go to study are Australia, United Kingdom, USA and Canada. Other non-English speaking countries are Egypt, India, Japan, South Korea and Russia.

Graduates who have studying abroad may well change the way they view all kinds of things which previously might be taken for granted. On top of that, the education helps them to understand besides analyze problems and phenomena from a longer-term worldwide perspective. Moreover, long-term exposure and experience in other culture especially advanced countries may have the tendency to developed the graduates to think objectively regarding own country, tolerate differences and recognize and appreciated diversity.

Undeniably, most of the scholarship recipients look at the government-funded education as a privilege, a right and not a responsibility although the paradox of policies entails major social cost. They have conspicuously failed to look at government policies objectively besides political significant and unintended consequences.

 

Not surprisingly, many of the English educated Malay elite who were successively selected to received western education since independent till now are assessed the government governance and valued the entire demonetization effort to a certain degree is a failure.

The problems of governance that arise in the states governs by UNMO are the repercussion of poor financial management, poor management of public resources and failure in policy implementation by the persons in charge who lack commitment, integrity and the relevant knowledge.

However, it seems almost certain that the poor governance has reached the end of the line, all which is left to the elite Malay community to deal with the long-term negative consequences of UMNO’s Malay-centrism on Malaysian nation building.

Some political observers have been seen over the last decades a gradual increase in the amount of Malay elite and the Malay elite era is emerging. In other words, one huge definite change over last decades has been the emergence of large enough English educated urban middle class Malay elite to contain the heat pulse completely. They appreciated the social stability and cultural pride and believe that only under a reformed system of good governance can bring, instead of acting out of highly augmented fear of economic and the irrelevance of politic as a community. 

In the same time, the Malay policy along ethnic line should never supposed to be the goal in itself as the ultimate purpose of a racial collective is to ensure its own survival. Some political observers believe that the Malay-centric nation building policy requires Malaysian nation building to remain successful.

In other words, it is most likely that the Malay-centric concept should go along with system-centric system which contains broad ethnic diversity where government is relatively capable. Otherwise, the country divides even further rather than unite together. The middle class is either stagnating economically or disappearing while the poor getting poorer and the rich keep getting richer, increasingly, class division and economic disparity becomes an emerging theme as anger mounts. Reforming Malay politics by English educated urban middle class Malay elite that accept multiculturalism seems to be the solution to the existing problem.

 

Unfortunately, it is recognized in greater circles that the opposition coalition is fragile as it is only an election-winning machine. The alliance between the opposition parties precisely turns out to be a marriage of convenience rather than ideological affinity. Lack of underlying comity and ideological affinity to hold the opposition coalition parties together is their contingency dilemma which is the difficult obstacle to overcome.

 

Ironically, issues come and go, but the underlying unease remains no matter how many rebuttal to spine a given issues. However, BN the ruling party is still facing unsolved problems with issues like mega scandal 1MDB, GST, abuse of power, mismanagement, Islamism besides prices soaring. In addition, skyrocketing prices have also made housing a political issue and has really added fuel to the fire.

On the other hand, the young voters needs to be convinced that the opposition can do better than the current ruling BN by lowering the cost of living, job opportunity, tertiary education and non-halal matters and etc. 

 

Ordinary voters have preferences about what the existing government ought to do and elect them and vice versa. However, some of the incumbent’s politicians have lost some votes in recent years; but neither opposition support has high enough to unseat them. 

More often than not, in protesting, quite a number of the voters who decided to stay away and refuse to cast their votes during the election which created the situation that those bad politicians are elected by good people who refuse to vote.

Undeniably, the current electoral system makes ruling BN defeat impossible. In the coming election, the task to defeat becomes even harder as the Election Commission embarks on an exercise to redelineate electoral boundaries, allegedly to dilute the opposition influencing power and given more say to the rural Malay voters, thus made the ruling BN in an even better position than in 2013. 

Contrary to what some have suggested, although most voters are unhappy with the current ruling BN but it doesn’t mean that most voters who will actually cast the vote on Election Day will vote for the opposition. 

Things happen and it matters and people often prefer political positions that advance their own interest. But the things aren’t looking so good for Najib, with a lack of significant achievements and “scandals piling up”, although the economy currently is considered a positive economic.

 

2013 General election saw BN lose its 2/3 majority in parliament along with the popular vote. However, BN maintain its power by gerrymandering.  The nearly 4 years since scandal happened after scandal, relentless crackdown, the fracturing of the opposition caused the long-term decline in public’s confidence in the ruling BN, but BN will still in power.

The real bottom line seems to be that, a lot hinges on issues and events and they are highly uncertain. However, there is some reason to believe that a betting person should regard Najib’s re-elected is more likely than not although his political performance doesn’t tell the whole story. By the same token, incumbent usually win the re-election. Although it has a lot to do with gerrymandering, but studies show that incumbency effects are very real, the incumbent usually wins.

In an uncertain world, the one thing really happen is the incumbent politician usually gets re-elected. This, however, has been true for a long time.

  

On the other hand, research suggests that’s not what happens matter, we tend to base on our opinions on beliefs when presented with contradictory facts, we adhere to our original belief even more strongly. This phenomenon effect is call backfire and it plays an especially important role in how to shape and solidify our belief on highly partisan issues.

The question remains: Can Mahathir capitalize on the BN’s unpopularity and its proven ability to win the coming election?

Mahathir struggles to win power

Politic is an art of impossible is proven by Mahathir once again. Mahathir joked that in the worst-case scenario, in the event Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) is deregistered, he is even willing to contest as a DAP candidate.

Mahathir made such a statement following ROS announced on 9 March that it has given Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) 30 days to respond to its queries and present the necessary documents or face deregistration. 

Having made such a strong political statement, Mahathir demonstrated that politic is an art of impossible is impossible to deny.

Ironically, the allegations of racism and Chinese chauvinist DAP political party by the mainstream media caused many have a deep fear of the party especially the Malay establishment. Undeniably, most of the Malay establishment view Chinese chauvinists would destroy Malay supremacy and Islam supremacy should they in power to form the government. Thus, Chinese-based DAP was the main victim under Mahathir authoritarian regime.

All the while, especially during Mahathir’s tenure, painting the DAP as the bogeyman for the Malay is the ultimate political strategy to kill DAP and get support by the ruling regime. 

From their point of view, the propagation of race-based narrative as UMNO is the only one to protect Malay’s right which preventing the Chinese from controlling the country in addition to safe the Malay from suffering like the fate of the Palestinians. This is the only effective strategy for the continue survival of the party based upon the construction and perpetuation of the Chinese-based party DAP.

Falling into racial and ethnic political allegation, Mahathir has personally claimed responsibility for demonizing DAP as an Chinese chauvinist party. When he was in power, under his strong arm tactics and strategy, Lim Kit Siang and his son, Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng were held under the ISA “Operasi Lalang”, a massive crackdown in 1987, yet they have now accepted him as the opposition leader.

In power for 22 years, Mahathir became the Malaysian longest serving prime minister. While in office, he jailed several opposition leaders. He said the mass-arrest and detention of opposition including Lim Kit Siang and his son Lim Guan Eng in 1987 happened was based on the recommendation of the police.

However, some political analysts say that in current political situation, any decision taken could have a great political impact for the future. Even the multi-billion- ringgit 1MDB corruption allegation was not effective enough to remove Najib, thus Mahathir is the only person that can ousting incumbent Prime Minister Najib and the Barisan Nasional.

Some political analysts say that the widening rift between the opposition leaders contribute to the polarization of Malaysia and will have difficulty dealing with the public dissatisfaction with government performance and it doesn’t necessary translate into perceptions that opposition parties could do a better job, thus overthrow the existing government.

Mahathir knew pretty well that only opposition alliance would have the best chance of winning over the coming 14th general election. Without any hesitation, Mahathir joined the opposition and formed a new political party “Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malayssia (PPBM) together with Muhyiddin, a former deputy prime minister and former UMNO deputy president.

Most political analysts and opposition supporters can stand their ground diplomatically without damaging the relationship by saying Mahathir is the only person who can shake the BN by winning the significant portion of Malay votes to win over the next general election. He can penetrate and sway or uproot the rural Malay support base which own by UMNO and PAS.

More often than not, currently the political strategy of UMNO is tailoring its strategy to attract the attention of the Malay rural voters by religious and race issues.

Confidence in the political opposition may have grown strongly to win over the coming general election; Lim Kit Siang expressed willingness to work with Mahathir to save Malaysia from becoming a failed state which is entirely man-made catastrophe. However, the barriers against the opposition winning are plenty.

The question remains: Under the current political scenario, can Mahathir lead the opposition to win the coming general election?