Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Is a hung Parliament brewing in Malaysia?

Every five years, the general election will be held and the coming 13th the general election must be held by 27 June 2013 at the very latest.

The general election speculation may not be practical, but it’s fun and made life more lively. More often than not, it needs to thin where it matters.

As noted, BN have dominated Malaysian electoral politics since independence but the development of the 12th general election political scenario much has changed beyond our understanding. 

It creates an inherent momentum behind positive and negative domino effects and the momentum appeared to continue with the political development especially the BERSIH 3.0 rally and the demands of Dong Zong Chinese-language educationists.

Traditionally, the UMNO outspokenly hawkish called on the government to take radical action especially towards the merit based in economic allocation, university admittance and Chinese-language education. It leads to dramatic changes in socialpoliticaleconomic scenarios.

The new Malaysia social and economic systems notoriously change the political scenario in Peninsular Malaysia which reflected in the 12th general election.

Ironically, the fruits of political economic development are not shared justly to all Malaysians especially the people in east Malaysia. It posts a big challenge to a veritable collapse of its "impregnable fortress" of the time deposit states of Sabah and Sarawak.

Undeterred by political skepticism about the 13th general election speculation, some political analysts crunch some numbers and take a crack that Pakatan Rakyat would have to win 93 seats more than BN’s 72 seats and capture another 24 seats from East Malaysia, then Pakatan Rakyat is home.

The brewing variables to the current political situation are, DAP would have to win 33 seats, along with PKR 32 and PAS 28 seats, that can be as electable alternatives to the Barisan Nasional.

Behind the political analysts, there are other media fabrications that PKR would be more likely to get 23 seats, 6 seats back from its politician defected to Barisan Nasional during the 12th general election additional to 3 new seats created. Pas could have captured 5 additional seats in Johor due to its vice president Salahuddin Ayub to contest a state seat in Johor in the coming polls.

The UMNO political internal crisis in Negeri Sembilan, Johor, and Sabah beside MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek just get one-third of its members support in Johor seems to be the collapse of BN’s impregnable fortress.

The dissatisfaction of Chinese voters towards the Batu Pahat UMNO outspokenly hawkish, deputy Education Minister seems could be the political catalysis for the loosing of a great numbers of Barisan Nasional seats at the next election.

Pakatan Rakyat would have capture 24 seats from East Malaysia that take a crack to the time deposit states of Sabah and Sarawak.

The claimed September 16th as a Black Day for Sabah and Sarawak due to unfulfilled the promises, assurances and undertakings by the senior partner to the Federation under Malaysia Agreement, 1963 in terms of security, economic prosperity and development were cast aside and ignored could be a few key factors that affect the voting pattern in Sabah and Sarawak.

The negative political impact, however might be overcome or neutralize by the numbers of illegal immigrants who were granted citizenship in Sabah, according to political analysis.

Many voters feel that they have been pushed away by politicians to cause the brewing of the political storms or rather should there a hung parliament.

Politics is frustrating; it’s a zero sum games. The Pakatan parties are always there to exploiting issues, hoping to gain some political advantage from disgruntled voters, they are there to beat the ruling BN.

On the other hand, BN has an outstanding track record for success and upward mobility since independence, what needed now is to influence the voter to make a decision. 

It seems that BN is waiting for the final emotional moment that will convince the voters that the right choice is the BN which can deliver as well as perceived to be a better choice and less chaotic than Pakatan.

The question remains: Politics is the art of possible, so what is the art of the politicians to win the coming 13th general election?

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